Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 194.686886 231.396819 275.219500 332.003897 404.544071 495.366415 6.197136e+02
2025-09-28 147.646716 190.275990 246.904475 329.654891 451.078282 628.858294 9.213823e+02
2025-10-05 129.080206 176.812342 245.665763 356.527545 539.505267 847.954384 1.454559e+03
2025-10-12 115.343894 165.674547 243.173674 378.305545 625.011431 1097.387099 2.201900e+03
2025-10-19 104.071188 155.354640 238.686032 394.162733 704.404524 1372.684972 3.227505e+03
2025-10-26 94.302025 145.343606 232.117679 403.745599 774.438450 1665.448400 4.599153e+03
2025-11-02 85.470316 135.281289 223.245040 406.176112 829.961782 1956.882577 6.347771e+03
2025-11-09 76.806416 124.154839 210.349247 397.070505 855.680536 2186.608200 8.243493e+03
2025-11-16 69.526942 114.476074 198.522960 387.367851 876.668240 2418.934559 1.062224e+04
2025-11-23 63.275373 105.874613 187.428473 376.751379 891.775757 2646.117679 1.354989e+04
2025-11-30 61.825584 106.023505 193.765043 408.125652 1038.631458 3483.203464 2.364299e+04
2025-12-07 58.125071 101.367711 189.388748 412.280519 1105.815245 4069.837026 3.499195e+04
2025-12-14 55.267396 98.203633 188.087116 425.170598 1212.817154 5001.519152 5.926549e+04
2025-12-21 51.573045 92.946017 181.428949 422.298341 1265.095122 5734.126044 9.153174e+04
2025-12-28 50.789948 93.585215 188.248693 459.307943 1492.184034 7975.841404 2.339205e+05
2026-01-04 49.532797 93.055095 192.235768 489.450221 1715.356496 10809.965470 6.809249e+05
2026-01-11 47.888583 91.482988 193.433041 511.492106 1921.491384 14220.249981 2.403534e+06
2026-01-18 45.947305 89.030809 192.043256 524.851701 2098.256543 18095.260988 1.167742e+07
2026-01-25 43.739048 85.743455 188.024476 528.244816 2227.413023 22061.248470 1.009318e+08
2026-02-01 41.082800 81.176719 180.031411 515.543101 2257.114127 24759.043855 1.884891e+09
2026-02-08 38.634031 76.886724 172.275392 502.038342 2276.122845 27551.623848 NaN
2026-02-15 36.356046 72.811057 164.630772 487.297456 2280.102012 30262.384575 NaN
2026-02-22 36.266525 73.932624 171.526826 530.967799 2726.451366 48388.456632 NaN